· 2017-01 → 2026-06 · verdict: CONFIRMED — WITH A TWIST
Pre-war (2017-01→2018-05), the mean effective burden of the apparel-origin set {Cambodia, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Pakistan} is ≥3x the rich-origin set {Germany, Japan, UK, France}; the 2025 wave narrowed the ratio, with the rich set rising ≥4x its pre-war level. Registered 2026-08-09 before the run.
Before a single trade-war tariff, the poor set paid a mean 12.5% at the US border (Cambodia 13.8, Bangladesh 15.2, Sri Lanka 11.9, Pakistan 8.9) against the rich set’s 1.3% (Germany 1.5, Japan 1.8, UK 1.0, France 0.9) — a 9.6× ratio, built into the ordinary MFN schedule because poor countries export apparel and shoes, which the schedule taxes hardest. By 2026 H1 the ratio had collapsed to 2.9× — and the twist is the mechanism: the wall narrowed not by lowering the top but because the trade war raised the bottom 6.3× (rich set 1.3% → 8.2%) while the top rose only 1.9× (12.5% → 23.4%). Everyone pays more; the poor’s head start shrank.
A pre-war ratio under 3x, or a ratio that widened after 2025, would have killed the claim. Measured: 9.6x → 2.9x.
This study graduated from a Trimtabist engagement — “Which countries actually paid the highest US tariffs — before the trade war?” — the original question →
This study is a frozen artifact: the ruling and its exhibits do not change when new data lands. If the verdict is ever revised, the revision is printed here with its reason, and the original stays on the record.
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