“What does America import from India — and is the 50% tariff biting?”
asked by Mrigank Singh · re-verified 2026-08-07
The number it created
India ships 1.63× its 2018 weight, and its cargo is now worth more per kilogram than China's ($4.0 vs $3.2). But since October 2025 it has run 14–30pp below its counterfactual for eight straight months — roughly 1.5 Mt short. Suppression, not front-running.
India against its counterfactual, percentage points. Below zero and staying below: suppression.
What it does not say
It does not say the corridor is dying — it grew two-thirds since 2018, and the suppression claim carries its own kill-switch: three months within ±5pp of donors closes it.
· the full record
Using the Trimtab tools, what happened to US imports from India after the August 2025 tariff — front-running, payback, or something worse?
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“What does America import from India — and is the 50% tariff biting?”
India ships 1.63× its 2018 weight, and its cargo is now worth more per kilogram than China's ($4.0 vs $3.2). But since October 2025 it has run 14–30pp below its counterfactual for eight straight months — roughly 1.5 Mt short. Suppression, not front-running.
It does not say the corridor is dying — it grew two-thirds since 2018, and the suppression claim carries its own kill-switch: three months within ±5pp of donors closes it.
I asked the Trimtab US Trade Ledger — open, no key, no account. Ask it something we
haven’t: https://trimtabist.com/asked/india-tariff
(via Mrigank Singh — engagement 10 on the board) #Trimtabist